By-Election Victory Opens Way For Sinn Fein to Enter the Next Government

November 28, 2010 • 11:35AM

The victory of Pearse Doherty in the Nov. 25 Irish by-election is more than just a dramatic victory for the Sinn Fein, it could begin to open the way for their entry into the next government. With this new dynamic in Ireland alone, there is a very real possibility that the bailout/budget will be voted down, which would sink the whole Inter-Alpha Group bailout scheme.

The Sinn Fein victory was indeed stunning. With a 55% turnout, Doherty received 40% of the vote. The ruling Fianna Fail candidate received only 21% in a district that was considered "safe" for the party. The candidate for Fine Gael, the country's largest opposition party, candidate got only 19%.

The next move of Sinn Fein, which will now have 5 seats in the 166 seat parliament, will be to open talks with the independent members of parliament to form a technical group, which will give the party the numbers necessary to call for a vote of no confidence, and give them full speaking rights in the Parliament.

While the government thinks it can count on 82 votes in parliament—which it needs to pass the budget, its real option is that the Fine Gael will either vote for the budget or abstain, since it has the same economic views as the Fianna Fail. This is based on a calculation that they think they will form the next government with the Labour Party. But the Sinn Fein victory, which is a clear indication that they could win a dramatic increase in the number of seats in the next parliament, has served to overturn Fine Gael's calculations. The Sinn Fein has already challenged the Labour Party to re-think its normal policy of forming a government alliance with the right-wing Fine Gael party after the next elections. The Irish Independent quotes Sinn Fein Party President Gerry Adams saying, "I think the Labour leadership needs to review their situation. Clearly people want an alternative way forward. This election is an endorsement of that approach." Adams has announced he will be giving up his seat in Northern Ireland and in Westminster, in order to run in the next Irish elections, specifically because of the serious economic crisis Ireland is in. He will be running in a district where he is expected to win.

Doherty himself said, "I would call on Labour now to change direction. You cannot credibly argue that you are the left when you go into bed with a party like Fine Gael who are of the right. This is a wake up call for [Labour Chairman] Eamon Gilmore and that party."