Will May 20 mark an irreversible slide to nuclear war?

A two-day international conference on ballistic missile defense systems (BMDS), called by the Russian government, should serve as a wake-up call to those who have been denying the reality of the threat of thermonuclear war. The May 3-4 conference in Moscow was titled “The Factor of Anti-Missile Defense in Forming a New Security Zone.” Before an audience of representatives of 50 nations, the top Russian military leadership reiterated the warning issued by Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on November 23, 2011: If NATO and the USA go ahead unilaterally with the deployment of anti-missile systems in Europe, which Russia has repeatedly identified as a threat to its strategic forces, Russia will have no choice but to consider a preemptive strike against the anti-missile installations.

U.S. officials have stated that the May 20 NATO summit in Chicago will declare that an “interim operational capability” of the European BMDS is operational.

The Russians at the conference presented video animations, showing how the missile defense system represents a threat to no country other than Russia. The presentation depicted the reach of radars and interceptor missiles to be deployed as part of the shield, and demonstrated how they were largely irrelevant to missiles potentially launched from Iran, but would threaten Russia’s ability to retaliate against a U.S./NATO attack.

The secretary of Russia’s Security Council, Nikolai Patrushev, said that the NATO system could intercept a portion of Russia’s ICBM force. “There are just no targets for the missile defense shield other than Russia,” Patrushev stated.

Russia has also offered cooperation on missile defense. Repeating the proposal Moscow has been making since then-President Vladimir Putin brought it to the Kennebunkport summit with President George W. Bush five years ago, Patrushev said the optimal solution is joint development of a European BMD system which would strengthen security of all countries of the continent without exception, would be adequate to the probable threats, and would not undermine strategic stability. Deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov added that, if there were a genuine agreement to cooperate on missile defense, then not only the Russian Gabala radar in Azerbaijan and other potential facilities in southern Russia, but also the Moscow Don-2N radar, would be available for joint East-West use.

Just a week earlier, Patrushev had announced that cooperation on Strategic Defense of Earth issues, such as preempting asteroid strikes, would be a major topic at the Russian Security Council-sponsored global security forum in St. Petersburg next month.

NATO and the United States insist that they will go ahead with the anti-missile deployment; that they will not provide written guarantees that the system is not aimed at Russia; and that Russia should give President Obama leeway until after his (presumed) re-election, to negotiate an agreement with Russia. Having already received numerous assurances from the Obama Administration on the system that were not honoured—and clear indications of the Obama-British encirclement policy against Russia and China—the Russians have no reason to believe them, and no intention to go along with the NATO game.

Addressing the Moscow conference on May 3, Gen. Nikolai Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, fired a shot across NATO’s bow ahead of the Chicago summit: “Considering the destabilizing nature of the BMDS, specifically the creation of the illusion of being able to inflict a disarming first strike without retaliation, a decision on the preemptive use of available offensive weapons will be taken during the period of an escalating situation,” warned Makarov. “Deployment of new offensive weapons in southern and northwestern Russia, capable of firing on the anti-missile installations, and including the emplacement of Iskander missile units in the Kaliningrad Region, is one possible [Russian] option for destroying the ABM infrastructure in Europe.”

After the Moscow conference Alexander Lukashevich, a spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, echoed Gen. Makarov’s stark warning:

“I think that the signals sent not only by General Makarov, but also by other senior military officers, were intended to make the participants of the upcoming Chicago NATO summit understand how serious the situation is and to reconfigure their thinking to take the Russian arguments into account in the further development of their BMDS.”

Citizens Electoral Council leader Craig Isherwood today said that Australians should realise the immediate danger facing the world:

“When it comes to foreign relations, the citizens of Australia, America and Europe are picking daisies in a minefield,” he said. “We might like to think that the strategic decision-makers for ‘our side’ are sensible and right, but the truth is they are madly pursuing an insane, imperialistic policy straight out of Dr Strangelove that is putting the entire world in grave danger—May 20 is shaping up to be the point of no return.

“This crisis is the awful consequence of going down the British imperial path, paved by Tony Blair and Bush/Cheney, of shredding national sovereignty and enforcing globalisation through preemptive war and regime change. British agent Obama has continued the deranged Blair-Bush policy, but the Russians under Putin have drawn a line in the sand. The Chinese are in the same mood. What would we as a nation do if it was us? What would the United States do if they felt disarmed against a nuclear threat?”

He concluded, “The CEC is heavily involved in the international effort led by Lyndon LaRouche to expose and stop this war policy, and instead lay a foundation for real peace based on economic development and respect for sovereignty. Any Australian who is passionate about stopping war should join us.”