Increasing air humidity may help control H1N1 spread

The following was submitted by Mohd Peter Davis to the letters editor of the New Straits Times (NST). A British-born LaRouche collaborator now resident in Malaysia, Davis worked for many years as a biologist with a specialty in viral disease. Because of its importance, we reproduce the text of the submitted letter here.

The Ministry of Health has been criticised for overreacting to the influenza pandemic which has not resulted in any deaths in Malaysia whilst dengue has killed 57 this year (Don't sensationalise H1N1 stories, NST 11 July). This is a foolish view and the Health Ministry has been absolutely correct in suspending leave for 100,000 medical officers and staff and educating the public that this mild H1N1 influenza pandemic could be the dress rehearsal for a virulent flu pandemic which can suddenly emerge anywhere in the world.

The new strain of Influenza, A/H1N1 spread throughout the world in only 4 months from its outbreak in Mexico to become a pandemic. Compared to the Influenza pandemic of 1918 which killed 50 to 100 million, the current pandemic is mild, killing 575 up till 10 July. However, there is deep concern amongst scientists and health professionals throughout the world that the present virus strain will mutate or more likely exchange new genes from bird and animal flu viruses to become a 1918 type virulent virus.

The lesson that has to be learnt by the world population is that the spread of influenza is virtually unstoppable, particularly with high urbanisation and air travel. Indeed, an infected air traveller is shedding infectious virus particles a day before displaying any flu symptoms and potentially infects all the other passengers. Last year Malaysia hosted 20 million tourists. Despite all the health precautions that have been taken to minimize its spread, the Centers for Disease Control acknowledged on June 25 that 1 million Americans had probably been infected so far by the new flu virus, more than half of them in New York City alone.

The flu dress rehearsal reveals the tragic truth that we have completely failed to prepare worldwide defenses to combat a virulent flu pandemic. As a virus researcher 30 years ago with the Australian CSIRO, I was warning my colleagues that another 1918 type flu pandemic was inevitable, given my understanding that viruses rather than merely being the agents of disease had a hidden, more fundamental and essential role in the biosphere. Viruses, I had been insisting publicly since 1972, were the natural agents for spreading genes between the earth's 50 million species. Viruses were the driving force of evolution, not aliens from space, and could not be eliminated, but their civilisation destroying potential had to be controlled by science and technology.

I proposed then exactly what French scientists are now advocating, namely the mass production of an effective flu vaccine and the vaccination of the entire world population within 2 weeks of a virulent strain emerging. However, my call for this ambitious international research program fell on deaf ears and we lost a 30 year head start.

Now most can see the enemy approaching but we have no bullets. A flu vaccine for perhaps 20% of the world's population currently takes 6 to 8 months to manufacture and the mass vaccination programs are not in place.

Yet, even at this dangerously late stage there is a new ray of hope to slow down the global spread of a virulent influenza virus. It is a stunningly simple public health measure and deserves to be put into immediate effect.

Researchers have known for 50 years that humidity in the air reduces the infectivity of certain viruses. Now, a research paper by Jeffrey Sharman from the College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University U.S.A., published in February, proves conclusively that the absolute humidity (the water in the air), rather than the temperature, greatly reduces the viability of the flu virus and therefore the transmission of influenza disease between guinea pigs. Surely, I reasoned, the rainforest countries blessed with all year round high humidity must be the world's safest territories during an influenza pandemic. And so they are!

I compared the 593 laboratory confirmed H1N1 deaths in the top 10 affected countries (America, Mexico, Argentina, down to Australia and New Zealand) with a combined population of 665 million with the 539 million population of the rainforest countries (Brazil, Colombia, Peru, etc. together with Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia). Only 8 H1N1 deaths have been reported from all the rainforest countries up to 10 July. Expressed per million population, the rainforest countries reported 54 times less deaths from H1N1 compared to the top ten affected countries.

As reported in Malaysia on 5 July, not one of the 1,016 people in close contact with H1N1 patients and rightfully placed under home quarantine by the Ministry of Health actually developed influenza. Tourists and returning nationals bring the latest strains of influenza to Malaysia and other rainforest countries and the virus particles they produce are shed into the humid air where they seem to fizzle out, but not completely.

I have posted the detailed table of results on my Biosphere Technology website, www.mohdpeterdavis.com, along with the abstract and link to the humidity research paper and my scientific article on the nature of viruses. I will regularly update the website with suggestions for exploiting this important finding worldwide.

The good news is that the Malaysian Deep Tropical evaporatively cooled animal sheds invented by my colleague N. Yogendran and housing 800 Jersey dairy cows in Muazam Shah should make effective emergency quarantine wards during a virulent influenza pandemic. The comfortable high humidity buildings should inactivate the influenza virus and help protect the health providers. Some pictures and articles on these bio-security animal buildings are also posted on my website.

Mohd Peter Davis

Bandar Baru Bangi