The struggle to hold momentum for Syrian peace

On 27 April, UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura closed the latest round of Syrian peace talks by stressing that ISIS would take advantage of any hesitation on the part of the international community. The talks had been characterised by a walk-out of the Saudi-led High Negotiations Committee (HNC), representing the so-called Syrian opposition, which claimed it wanted to suspend talks in protest over increased transgressions of the Syrian ceasefire. While the HNC is blaming the escalation in violence in Aleppo on the Assad government and its Russian backers, Syrians are making a different connection, pointing out that the HNC withdrawal appeared to be coordinated with the increase in attacks by HNC-supported groups.

"It is not surprising that the attacks in Aleppo were carried out by Ahrar ash-Sham, trained by Turkey, and the terrorist attack in Damascus [over the weekend of 23-24 April] by Jaysh al-Islam, which is trained by Saudi Arabia", Dr Bashar Ja’afari, the head of the Syrian government delegation to the peace talks, told reporters in Geneva after meeting with de Mistura. "The threats emanating from a number of representatives of the Saudi delegation [HNC] who have been here in Geneva before getting upset and leaving, have transferred into rocket attacks on the ground in Aleppo and a suicide bombing that killed innocent people in Sayeda Zeinab in Damascus", Jaafari said.

Local Syrian journalist Yosef al-Ebrahim, reporting from inside Aleppo, made the same connection in remarks to RT: "In reality, militants are shelling civilian neighbourhoods. It is pretty clear. All targets which have been subject to shelling are civilian neighbourhoods", he said, but "what draws one’s attention is that the increase in hostilities from armed groups coincides with the withdrawal of the Riyadh delegation of the Syrian opposition from Geneva negotiations."

While there has been a surge in Russian air activity out of their airbase in Latakia over the past three weeks, almost back to pre-cease fire levels, the military action is aimed at groups in control of Aleppo, such as ISIS and the al-Qaedaaffiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, who are not party to the ceasefire and are, therefore, fair game.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on 25 April offered some advice to the Syrian rebel groups that claim to be part of the cease-fire, and to their American backers. "We agreed long ago that groups that found themselves on the positions of terrorists, but that are not terrorists and want to participate in the political process, should leave the territories of terrorist positions", Lavrov said. "They should disassociate and physically leave these positions." The problem, Lavrov went on, is that the United States has not been keeping to its commitments to separate the groups it backs from al-Nusra. "The firm promise of the United States … to carry out this demarcation has not been fulfilled for two months already", he said.

The Russians have been warning for a while that Jabhat al-Nusra was massing its forces in Aleppo. Lt. Gen. Sergei Kurylenko, the chief of the Russian reconciliation centre at the Latakia airbase in Syria, said on 29 April that, "There are forces, above all Jabhat al-Nusra … who are not interested in the stabilisation of the situation in Syria and are making efforts to disrupt the peaceful settlement process in the country. Provocations from their side aimed at escalating tensions in the northern areas of Latakia province and in Aleppo continue." Kurylenko did however announce a partial cease-fire for northern Latakia province and the eastern Ghouta district of Damascus, organised by the USA and Russia. They are pushing to extend the cease-fire to Aleppo.

Twice in the past week officials of the US government have admitted that it is Jabhat al-Nusra that is escalating the fighting in Syria. On 20 April Col. Steve Warren, the US military spokesman in Baghdad, told reporters at the Pentagon via video teleconference that "it’s primarily al-Nusra who holds Aleppo, and of course, al-Nusra is not part of the cessation of hostilities", with the obvious implication that the Russians and the Syrian government are right to attack them. Two days later, Secretary of State John Kerry admitted to the New York Times editorial board that the Russians might be moving on Aleppo because members of al-Nusra were mixed throughout parts of the region, and that they were terrorists and not party to the cease-fire. At the same time, he said, the region is home to insurgent groups that oppose Mr Assad and have agreed to the cease-fire.

The USA is about to make the situation worse, having announced the deployment of another 250 special forces into Syria, in addition to the 50 already there. Putting armed forces within the internationally recognised borders of a sovereign country is, by anybody’s definition, an invasion. A Pentagon spokesperson confirmed on 25 April that US forces would remain in Syria for the foreseeable future, affirming that America has no intention of returning certain parts of Syria to the sovereign control of the Syrian government.

The Syrian government responded, "This intervention is rejected and illegitimate, it happened without the Syrian government’s approval", as the SANA news agency quoted from a Syrian Foreign Ministry statement. The statement, according to Reuters, also describes the US deployment as "a blatant act of aggression that constitutes a dangerous intervention and a gross violation of Syria’s sovereignty."

US Representative Jim McGovern declared that "These wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and Syria are on remote control, and, quite frankly, it’s unconscionable that Congress, which has a constitutional responsibility, is sitting on its hands."

To make matters worse, US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford also indicated on 28 April, in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee, that the USA is preparing for possible military action against the Islamic State in Libya. Dunford told the committee that Gen. David Rodriguez, the commander of US Africa Command, has prepared plans to support local forces in Libya and that the Defence Department had recently assigned military assets to Africom, presumably to develop intelligence for future operations in Libya.

From Australian Alert Service, 4 May 2016