China's diplomacy winning 'battle' for South China Sea

There is good reason to believe that the United States' heavy-handed efforts to preserve strategic dominance in the Asia-Pacific are having the reverse effect, driving the nations of Southeast Asia towards rapprochement with China. Ongoing border frictions with their giant northern neighbour are, it seems, a relatively minor matter alongside the tremendous economic opportunities to be had from participation in China's One Belt, One Road global development initiative.

Delegates from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries and China met in Singapore on 27- 28 April for the 22nd ASEAN-China Senior Officials' Consultations, which included a special meeting on the implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties (DOC) in the South China Sea. Singapore's Permanent Secretary of Foreign Affairs Mr Chee Wee Kiong remarked at a subsequent press briefing that there had been "useful and frank discussions on the structure and elements" of a regional Code of Conduct (COC). The parties agreed to establish a 24-hour hotline between foreign ministries to deal with maritime emergencies, "build trust and confidence … and help prevent accidents"; made good progress on a proposed ASEAN- China Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea; and "explored broadening and deepening cooperation in a number of areas, such as trade and non-traditional security issues." "All in all, the meetings over the last two days have reinforced the point that ASEAN's partnership with China is substantive, mutually beneficial and positive", Mr Chee said. "… We will continue to foster opportunities for dialogue and communication between ASEAN and China".

Xinhua on 23 April reported Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s announcement from Vientiane, Laos, that China had "reached a four-point consensus with [ASEAN members] Brunei, Cambodia and Laos on the South China Sea issue". The points agreed were that "the right enjoyed by sovereign states to choose on their own ways to solve disputes under the international law should be respected"; that they "opposed any attempt to unilaterally impose an agenda on other countries"; that "territorial and maritime disputes should be resolved through consultations and negotiations by parties directly concerned" under Article 4 of the DOC; and the belief "that China and the ASEAN countries are able to jointly maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea through cooperation". In a thinly veiled rebuke to the USA, they also suggested that "countries outside the region should play a constructive role in this regard". Meanwhile, "territorial disputes over some islands, rocks and shoals in the South China Sea are not an issue between China and ASEAN as a whole", and as such "should not affect the development of China-ASEAN relations". Two weeks later, Laotian President Bounnhang Vorachit travelled to Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Premier Li Keqiang and other senior members of government. Xinhua reported that during the visit the two countries signed 10 agreements on economic and technological cooperation (including energy development), as well as a memorandum of understanding on Chinese investment in Laos, and pledged to push forward construction of the China-Laos Railway, a major connection between the (land-based) Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road that between them give One Belt, One Road its name.

All of this led Murdoch rag The Australian to lament on 5 May that "The battle for the South China Sea is being fought on the diplomatic as well as the military front, with Beijing now taking the lead on both." Lest it be forgotten, China’s diplomacy has always extended to the United States itself, but neither the Bush nor, in particular, the Obama administrations have been interested in anything but confrontation. That may change, as The Australian grudgingly acknowledges: "under a president Donald Trump, [the USA] would withdraw militarily from the region, leaving China to negotiate—if it chose—with the ASEAN nations one by one". The downside—or upside, if you happen to be a neo-con—is that "a Hillary Clinton White House would provide a fresh challenge to Beijing, since she was the original architect of the 'Asia pivot’ in part responding to China’s South China Sea ambitions."

The Australian concludes with the forlorn admission that due to China’s diplomacy the issue could be decided locally between the sovereign nations of the South China Sea—a blow to Anglo-American insistence upon their right to interfere in every part of the world.

From Australian Alert Service, 11 May 2016