Kerry-Lavrov Deal Could Lead To Geneva II

September 17, 2013 • 9:05AM

According to Washington sources close to the intelligence community and the Obama White House, the deal signed on Sept. 14 between U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov can lead to a genuine chance of a successful Geneva II peace conference, ending the two and a half year Syria crisis. The sources cautioned that there are three key hurdles to overcome before the Geneva II conference can be seriously organized. First, the UN must certify Syria's ratification of the chemical weapons ban convention, which should take place at any moment (Syria formally filed the required documents to the UN on Sept. 13). Next, the Syrian government, in the next 10 days, must provide a detailed inventory of its chemical weapons stockpiles and production capacities. Since the U.S., Israeli, Russian and other intelligence services have a good map already of the Syrian CW capacities, it will be vital that the Syrian inventory be complete and accurate. Once that hurdle has been overcome, inspectors must be sent from the UN into Syria, with unfettered access to the identified sites, to begin the transfer of control and eventual destruction. While Secretary of State Kerry has emphasized that all of these steps can be accomplished rapidly, it took almost seven years for the UN to fully destroy Iraq's CW stockpiles after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein.

The sources emphasized that once the first three steps are completed, with UN inspectors on the ground, the prospects then increase for a successful Geneva II meeting. There is a growing chorus of American specialists who are saying that Iran must be given a seat at the Geneva table, for obvious reasons. The fact that Washington has abandoned, for now, the plans for military strikes against Syria, has strengthened President Hassan Rouhani's hand against hardliners in his own country.

One source emphasized that the U.S. institutional consensus is that it would be a disaster were the Syrian rebels to win at this time. A diplomatic solution is not just preferred. It is the only viable option, given the strength of the jihadist factions, backed by the Saudis, in the Syrian opposition. The best outcome, according to the source, is for a deal to be struck between the U.S.-allied Syrian rebel factions with the current Syrian government, so that a coalition can be formed including the existing Syrian Army and intelligence services, the Alawite leadership and the vetted rebels. The first order of business for such a transitional government would be a campaign to wipe out the jihadists. The source warned that Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries would resort to any extremes to prevent this Geneva II process from succeeding.

The view of these sources was publicly echoed last night on CBS' "60 Minutes" by Mike Morrell, who just retired as Deputy Director of the CIA, after a 33-year career with the Agency. In a cogent interview, Morrell warned that a jihadist takeover of Syria is possible, and it would represent the greatest security threat to the United States and U.S. allies. He issued similar warnings about Afghanistan should the Taliban take over the country again. Morrell spelled out the complexities of the current Middle East situation, including the fact that there is a surrogate war underway in Syria and elsewhere in the region between Saudi Arabia and Iran for regional power. He, too, said that the best outcome at this point would be a coalition government between the existing Syrian institutions and factions of the rebels who have been working with the U.S. He bluntly acknowledged that Al Nusra and the other jihadist factions are the best fighters, and that many Syrian rebels are joining their ranks for that reason.