Preparedness for a Pandemic? Stop the Hospital Closures!

August 27, 2009 (LPAC) — A continued shutdown is proceeding across the United States of specialty medical units (emergency rooms, in-patient psychiatric wards, etc.) and even entire hospitals, in the face of a potential peak need for H1N1/09 flu hospitalizations this Fall. A few essential parameters of this crisis are summarized in the new White House "Report to the President on U.S. Preparations for 2009-H1N1 Influenza," despite its wrongful assertion that the Obama Administration is acting to "minimize negative impacts" of the pandemic.

The report presents a possible scenario in which the new flu spreads rapidly this Fall, before any inoculation program can take effect to provide immunity (which now cannot be until late November). A peak date of incidence of H1N1/09 infection could occur as of Oct. 15.

At this time, the peak need for occupancy of hospital beds, for the pandemic alone, could be in the range of 50-150 beds per 100,000 population, when in fact, there are only 211 beds per 100,000 persons in the U.S. hospital system totally!

The peak occupancy of ICU (intensive care unit beds, especially with ventilators) due to H1N1/09 could be 10-25 ICU beds/100,000 population, when the U.S. has only 20 ICU beds/100,000 population! Moreover, the number of pediatric ICU beds is very limited, and the new flu hits the young the worst.

The report advocates an "action response" by government authorities, to monitor "stress" on hospitals this Fall, and then engage in "resource reallocation" (i.e. conduct triage; kick non-flu patients out of care). The fact that there are insufficient resources to begin with — no matter what the allocation — is part of the underlying premise of this Grim Reaper document from the President's Council of Advisers on Science and Technology.